Semper Maior: Spirits Rising

FinanceBiotech
Written By Peter Kolchinsky
 

by Peter Kolchinsky and Tess Cameron

Peter Kolchinsky is founder and Managing Partner and Tess Cameron is a Principal at RA Capital Management.

January 4, 2024

With an insane amount of data analysis and insights by Alex Martinez-Forte, Jacqueline Rhuda, and Kris Shuman, and a massive graphics effort by Erin Clutter.

* * *

A year ago we published the first “Semper Maior” piece, making the case that biotech was on firm ground and ready for a reboot. We put out the second piece last summer, when it felt like the rebound was underway. Had the year ended in October or even November… well, you know. But here we are after a general market and XBI surge feeling like biotech is now truly recovering from its prolonged downturn, having been distilled to a more valuable core. So let’s mine the data, as we have before, to get a sense of what happened in 2023 and what lessons to take with us into 2024.

(We’re sharing the report’s Table of Contents — and one figure! — here. The report itself — all 20-something tables and figures and 50 pages of analysis you are NOT going to find anywhere else — is available to subscribers via the button below. If you’re not a subscriber, entering your email to access the report will get you added to our free mailing list.)

Semper Maior — Always Better

Introduction: The bottom line at the top

  • Hot and Not: A quick lookup of lessons to take with us into 2024

Part 1: 2023 sliced and diced every which way

  • By the numbers: The Great Distillation of our sector

    • Like making spirits: Shrink by volume, increase in value

    • Negative EV: Releasing their claim on society’s resources, but some cling on

  • Performance: Weight for it… A good year for some

    • Specialist-owned Core companies had a solid 2023

    • Core-focused M&A drove returns, with little help from those “left behind”

    • The First Derivative of Core: The 92 Climbers drove returns of the Left Behind

  • Bottom fishing amongst the Negative EVs: Rewards for those who cast their nets

  • Danger Zone: The real danger lies in a smaller zone than we thought 

    • Narrowing the Danger Zone

    • Specialists are in little danger

Part 2: Buyers gotta buy

Part 3: Restarting the crossover conveyor belt

  • Reasons for reactivation

  • Price discovery: A rare skill that requires trading allocation for information  

  • When is a company ready to be public?

Part 4: The Stroke of the Pen that we must collectively redirect

  • Just standing by: Three weak reasons for being a bystander

  • Stepping off the sidelines and how to encourage others

  • It comes down to mission. Have you got one?

Please click here for important RA Capital disclosures.

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A year ago we published the first “Semper Maior” piece, making the case that biotech was on firm ground and ready for a reboot. We put out the second piece last summer, when it felt like the rebound was underway. Had the year ended in October or even November… well, you know. But here we are after a general market and XBI surge feeling like biotech is now truly recovering from its prolonged downturn. So let’s mine the data, as we have before, to get a sense of what happened in 2023 and what lessons to take with us into 2024.

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Peter Kolchinsky

Peter Kolchinsky is a founder and Managing Partner at RA Capital Management and author of The Great American Drug Deal. Peter is active in both public and private investments in companies developing drugs, medical devices, diagnostics, and research tools and serves on the boards of publicly- and privately-held life science companies. Peter also leads the firm’s engagement and publishing efforts, which aim to make a positive social impact and spark collaboration among healthcare stakeholders, including patients, physicians, researchers, policymakers, and industry. He served on the Board of Global Science and Technology for the National Academy of Sciences, is the author of The Entrepreneur’s Guide to a Biotech Startup, and frequently writes and speaks on the future of biotechnology innovation. Peter founded and serves as a Director of No Patient Left Behind, a non-profit advocate for healthcare reforms that would make today's medicines affordable to patients and promote the innovation that gives all of us hope for tomorrow. He holds a BA from Cornell University and a PhD in Virology from Harvard University.

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