Our usual top-down biotech sector metrics showed that 1H24 was… pretty boring (though for us bottom-up folks, individual companies offer plenty of excitement). After the last few years, boring ain’t bad. With expectations of Fed easing interest rates due to waning inflation, the excitement level for the second half of the year has already picked up, but that’s not reflected in the metrics here.

A year ago we published the first “Semper Maior” piece, making the case that biotech was on firm ground and ready for a reboot. We put out the second piece last summer, when it felt like the rebound was underway. Had the year ended in October or even November… well, you know. But here we are after a general market and XBI surge feeling like biotech is now truly recovering from its prolonged downturn. So let’s mine the data, as we have before, to get a sense of what happened in 2023 and what lessons to take with us into 2024.

Our January 2023 analysis Semper Maior: Time to Reboot Biotech argued that the development-stage biotech industry had found its footing, following one of the sector’s most sustained and painful drawdowns. Now, in our first update to that analysis, we’re happy to report that development-stage biotech remains on solid ground. In the first half of 2023, biotech investors harvested considerable gains from M&A and have already partially redeployed that capital back into what is now a smaller, slightly more highly valued set of promising development-stage companies.

We’ve suffered a protracted downturn in general interest in biotech. That downturn has been compounded by rising interest rates undercutting equities in general. Now we must determine 1) how much worse this downturn might be and 2) how we’ll do things differently once we reboot. Here, Peter Kolchinsky explains why he believes we’ve emerged from the downturn but must reboot biotech with more honest and efficient processes and better defend our industry’s value proposition to policymakers and the public.